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A professor in the Department of Political Science (Faculty of Philosophy and Social Sciences), Thierry Kellner is also a researcher at REPI-ULB (Research and Studies on International Politics) and at EASt-ULB full article...
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February 2018 - The two Koreas draw closerThierry Kellner, Research and Studies on International Politics (REPI-ULB)
Thierry Kellner, the delegations from South Korea and North Korea paraded together during the Olympics: this is a strong sign pointing to reconciliation between two countries at war since 1953. Why this change? This is the logical outcome of the previous month's events: in 2017, tensions between North Korea, South Korea, and the United States reached a climax. North Korea is planning on reinforcing its ballistic capabilities and making a show of its nuclear power on the world stage: this is the only way for the regime to ensure its own survival, as well as to bolster its internal security and international credibility. Once this is done, North Korea is in a stronger position and can move on to the next step: concentrate on its much needed economic development, likely following the Chinese model. To this end, Kim Jong Un plays the appeasement card in order to create a favourable opportunity and gain an upper hand when negotiations inevitably happen. In this context, the Olympics are a fantastic chance to give a concrete sign of thawing. Since 1953 there have been many cycles where tensions and belligerent rhetoric have been followed by a phase of cooling down: this is a proven strategy that North Korea uses masterfully.
Is the meeting South Korean president Moon Jae In part of this strategy? Yes, but it should also be noted that the timing was especially good, as Moon Jae In had based his campaign in part on improving relations with North Korea. The third player involved, the United States, also offered an opportunity: Donald Trump had suggested during his campaign that he would consider meeting with a North Korean leader, which no US president had done before.
The meeting between Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump in Singapore was indeed unprecedented, and both sides have expressed satisfaction: what will be the outcomes? Both sides got something out of the meeting, including in terms of image. Beyond that, not much. The agreement on denuclearisation does not include an inventory of North Korea's arsenal, or a dismantling schedule, or control procedures. This is in stark contrast to the in-depth nuclear deal that Obama negotiated with Iran and that was later rejected by Trump. In terms of image and ego, this is a win for Donald Trump, but no actual issues have been solved! In fact, Kim Jong Un has come out on top: a one-on-one meeting with the US president is a recognition of his status and his regime. China and Russia have also relaxed the economic sanctions they had imposed on North Korea, which reduces the US' leverage: another win for Kim Jong Un, and another blow to Donald Trump.
So there is much to be done in 2019… That's right: negotiations will continue, and Trump has mentioned meeting with Kim Jong Un for a second time at the beginning of the year. This could be an opportunity to tackle contentious issues and find out what North Korea is truly willing to cede. I believe that full denuclearisation will be extremely difficult to obtain, because the nuclear programme is how the regime ensures its own survival. However, it is also incompatible with the economic programme that Kim Jong Un would like to implement and that would require the US to ease its sanctions. It's like trying to square the circle; it remains to be seen what is acceptable for both the regime and the international community, whether a compromise is possible, and at what cost. Another question that will eventually have to be brought to the table is that of human rights, which is currently being completely ignored for the sake of moving negotiations along. One thing is clear to me, however: if North Korea does not get its way, we may see tensions rise and the cycle begin again.
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Friday, February 9 The 23rd Winter Olympics kick off in Pyeongchang, South Korea. During the opening ceremony, athletes from North and South Korea parade together, flying the Korean Unification Flag.
South Korean president Moon Jae In and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un officially meet on April 27, and agree to end the war on the Korean peninsula.
On June 12, Kim Jong Un and US president Donald Trump meet in Singapore; their talks conclude with the former promising to denuclearise North Korea and the latter promising to end naval manoeuvres in the region.
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