July 2018 - Migrants in a deadly Mediterranean

Federica Infantino, Group for Research on Ethnic Relations, Migrations, and Equality (GERME)

The Mediterranean is at the heart of many debates on migration that should be at the forefront of the 2019 EU electoral campaign. Federica Infantino, what can we learn from the data on migrant crossings?

We must be very careful with statistics: quantifying irregular migration is, by definition, a complex endeavour. Still, comparing the data available in 2015 and 2018 reveals a decrease in the number of crossings. Routes have also changed: 10 years ago, most migrants went to the Strait of Gibraltar; then, starting in 2015, most crossed the eastern Mediterranean, towards Greece and Turkey; then was Italy, and now, in 2018, Spain has become a major destination.

How do you explain these route changes?

In 2015, as most of the migrants were from Syria, the eastern Mediterranean was the most popular route. More generally, though, routes actually change depending on how strictly the borders are controlled: when a border closes, migrants move to another one. As they leave their home country, they learn border crossing strategies and routes as they go.

While crossings have decreased in 2018, the Mediterranean has never been so deadly: in the first half of 2018, one migrant out of every 19 has died at sea. Why is this?

This is another consequence of stronger border controls. If crossing is more difficult and dangerous, risks increase and so do costs. As a result, the informal economy behind border crossing becomes stronger: smugglers demand more money to migrants and their business becomes more profitable. If Europe intends to put an end to smuggling and irregular migration, the best method is to authorise legal crossings and better manage arrivals. And those who might worry about massive waves of migrants should keep in mind that Europe is not governed by laissez-faire: each state controls its borders.

Several EU leaders have suggested creating ‘landing platforms’ along Africa's Mediterranean coast. What do you think of this idea?

This is called remote control: the border is moved to partner neighbouring countries, such as Morocco, Tunisia, or Libya. It may seem like an appropriate solution to end deadly crossings, but the risk is that other parties could end up in charge of migration. And of course, the very first requirement is that the countries involved accept this partnership, which is not the case. Political discourses based on security, humanitarian principles, or utilitarianism always focus on migrants, but the fundamental question is more about what Europe we want. Do we want to limit the mobility of people, goods, services, capital, ideas, and images? A ‘locked down’ Europe or Mediterranean has never existed, most likely because this is neither possible nor even desirable.