December 2018 - COP24 & Climate Change

Romain Weikmans, Centre for Studies on Sustainable Development

The COP24 conference is happening this December. Romain Weikmans, could you explain what is at stake?

The Paris Agreement, which was adopted at the conclusion of the COP21 conference, lays the general groundwork for a new international climate governance. The COP24 is an important one, as the negotiations conducted should lead to a definition of practical implementation details for the Paris Agreement. Another goal is to determine how the various countries’ commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are placing the planet on a trajectory that is compatible with the Paris Agreement, especially in light of the IPCC's recent report on global warming of 1.5°C.

What should we take away from this IPCC report?

The report underlines the fact that it is still possible, from a geophysical perspective, to keep the increase in global temperatures under 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial period. In other words, our past greenhouse gas emissions have not yet placed us on track towards an unavoidable 1.5°C increase in temperature.

I believe, however, that this is as far as we can go in terms of optimism. Temperatures have already risen by 1°C, and considering the speed and scale of the socio-economic transformations that would be required to reduce global emissions and stay within the 1.5°C target, it is entirely unrealistic to expect this target to be met. It is important to understand that the IPCC report was ordered by various countries, prompted by insistent demands from states that are extremely vulnerable to climate change. This includes, among others, states that are threatened by rising ocean levels. As a result, this report was produced by scientists but has considerable political impact.

What does a 1.5°C increase imply, and what would the consequences be?

Intuitively, a 1.5°C increase seems minor when the temperature frequently varies by more than 10°C in a single day. Looking at global averages, though, even a 0.5°C difference can have drastic effects. The IPCC's special report draws attention, for instance, to the fact that a 1.5°C increase in global temperatures would cause a 70 to 90% decline in tropical coral reefs. A 2°C increase would lead to 99% of reefs dying out. There are currently 500 million people across the world whose livelihoods depend on these ecosystems.

Is there still time to do something?

The situation is very serious, and we must be able to say this… and hear it said! Many impacts can already be observed, and past and current greenhouse gas emissions have brought us to a level of warming that will have severe consequences for human and non-human beings. That being said, it is still possible to avoid much loss and suffering. All levers must be acted upon, whether at the individual or collective scale. In fact, there is no point in attempting to contrast these two scopes of action, as they are mutually reinforcing. Meat consumption and air transport are two levers that citizens can act upon easily, with significant effects in terms of reducing individual GHG emissions. Citizens should also demand and support public policies that enable a quick reduction of emissions. An essential question is that of preparing and adapting to the impacts of climate change. Another is support for populations that are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, whether in our country or abroad.

We can only hope that the IPCC's special report will drive countries to announce they are reinforcing their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We must all increase our efforts, as global commitments to reduce emissions currently add up to a 3°C increase in temperatures, which would radically change our planet.